So what's the forecast for Feb 3 and beyond?
Dean's not competing. Does he get any delegates in the Southwest? Don't forget about the early mail-in votes. How does the press paint this ahead of MI? I suspect he gets a pass, but also suspect he has deep trouble later in the week.
Clark's sliding in some polls in OK. I think he faces a death spiral if he doesn't win OK or really surge in AZ.
Edwards is all over the place in SC polls, but I'd guess he pulls it out. (I also thought he was going to comfortably beat Clark in NH, so what do I know?) A win in SC keeps him alive in the press and in fund-raising. But it's a shame he can't do more this week. This really seems like the easiest moment to recast the race. But he'd need something beyond SC to really do that - either an unexpected surge in MO or in OK. A week after Feb 3, VA and TN should be a very minor firewall for Edwards.
If both Edwards and Clark both win their 'strong' state, they both continue on dividing the anti-Kerry centrist vote, and continue to miss the opportunity to recast the race with Kerry in the 'liberal' slot. Both should be rooting for the other to underperform.
Oddly, Dean should be rooting for Kerry. If both Edwards and Clark get beat in their 'strong' state, it could potentially leave Dean left standing as the anti-Kerry.
Of course, the anti-Kerry slot doesn't seem to be worth very much. I don't think Dean or Clark could scale up to the necessary degree to be a viable alternative for the nomination, even if they were the last anti-Kerry standing. Things don't seem much better for Edwards, but if he does end up as the last anti-Kerry standing, he'd have at least a possibility of victory.
Kerry continues to stand tall. The race isn't going to recast itself, and he's currently cast as the nominee.