Hundreds of pages coming.

Edwards is up to .20 (from .02 last night)
Kerry is down to .65 (from .95 last night)

i got lucky (or quick) and sold almost all my Kerry's before they moved down.

i got even luckier (or smart) and bought up a boatload of cheap Edwards contracts yesterday in anticipation of a surprising showing in Wisconsin.  i bought around .02, so i already have a tidy profit.  do i take my infidelity profits now?  or do i hold on to shares of our nominee?

there's money to be made or lost right now.  lots of movement.

The last 24 hours have been like a tub of cherry vanilla ice cream for the Edwards camp.

• Clark drops.
• The Sunday debate is on.
• Dean slams Kerry.
• While slamming Kerry, Dean says that Edwards would make a better nominee.
• Edwards flips his stump speech to focus on jobs being shipped overseas, and today a story breaks about 500 Milwaukee automotive jobs getting shipped to Mexico.

In other news, if you follow the game behind the game, there's a fascinating account of Ickes slamming Shrum.  http://www.observer.com/pages/frontpage2.asp

He's talking jobs.  And the speech is damn good!  It's got some powerful populist music to it.

It's really about time.  I think they should have moved on from the Iowa speech right after NH.

Dr. Dean said he "was unaware of making this decision" before announcing it. He explained that he often let choices "incubate unconsciously for a long time before I actually make a formal decision."

A Dean aide said the candidate had not discussed his change of heart in advance with anyone on his staff.

Paging Andy Stern...

• You can't get elected President if you're from North of Misssouri
• You can't get elected President if you're a sitting member of Congress

You must be a Senator from Massachusettes who skippered a small boat in combat with bravery who has the initials of J.F.K.

So why bother with John Edwards?

Sure he's the best campaigner in the field, perhaps able to finally convince the American electorate that a populist economics is in line with their interests for the first time in 40 years.

But even more importantly, Edwards is also a Southerner.  And beyond arguments over whether the Dems can win the White House without any Southern states, there are 5 Democratic Senate seats up for grabs this year.  Lose 'em all, and we're looking at a filibuster-proof Republican Senate.  Lose 'em all and the Presidency, and we're looking at permanent one-party rule.

It's a good and entertaining look at the process.  And it's directed by the great Robert Altman and written by Doonesbury's Gary Trudeau, so you're in good filmmaking hands.

They're airing every Tuesday evening, with repeats through the week.  Worth checking out.

There have been quite a few lies coming out of Burlington during this nomination race, but this one is the big lie.

Just how good this news is for the Edwards campaign can't be overstated.  It gives him a clear anti-Kerry shot among white voters in SC.

The bad news is that Clyburn is endorsing Kerry.

This isn't that big of a surprise, but it isn't going to help.  The only positive spin is that since Sharpton is connecting among black voters, there are fewer to go around for the white candidates.

Kerry's going to win big, and open up a shining path to the nomination.  Dean's going to get his far off second, and Edwards will beat Clark.  If someone really surprises today, it could obviously change everything I've written below.  But let's assume today goes according to script.

So what's the next week going to look like?

If Edwards or Clark were showing that kind of surge, I'd say they were going to win the primary.  However, I question the quality of the Dean surge.

The final ARG poll notes that they're getting responses indicating that at least some of the Dean surge is based on "fairness/sympathy" against the media overkill of The Scream.  I had a vague idea of that even before the ARG comments.  

My sense is that this is not the kind of thing that will drive people to actually pull the lever for Dean.  I continue to believe he has a firm ceiling on his support at 25%, and will likely get fewer votes than that, although the polls are beginning to indicate something different.

I don't have anything near full confidence in my conclusion on this.  The Dean surge may indeed be for real.  It just smells a bit different to me than other kinds of surges.  We'll know very soon.