While NH always has the potential to surprise, the results look in reasonably sharp focus.
Kerry's going to win big, and open up a shining path to the nomination. Dean's going to get his far off second, and Edwards will beat Clark. If someone really surprises today, it could obviously change everything I've written below. But let's assume today goes according to script.
So what's the next week going to look like?
Edwards looks reasonably safe in SC. I don't think Kerry has the resources to make a
strong effort there. And I think Clark is too wounded to be a serious challenger. The one caveat would be if Clymer threw in with Kerry.
OK is a battleground. It should be a test of whether Clark has any kind of pulse, and whether Edwards can mount a mulit-state campaign.
Dean is thinking about concentrating on NM and AZ, but I'd imagine he'll have trouble getting any traction against Kerry there. This could be a very discouraging week for Dean. They don't have an easy route to a win anywhere, unless the field gives them Delaware. I imagine Burlington will be tempted to play lightly next week, and make a stand in MI, but that strategy has its own perils.
The real prize is going to be MO. This could be the real showdown between Edwards and Kerry, assuming Kerry leaves SC alone. I've seen reports that Geppy isn't going to endorse before MO, and even if this is true, he can still throw his support short of an actual endorsement. It makes little sense for him to go anywhere but Kerry. Because of this is the kind of support that should really help its recipient, I'd strongly assume Kerry has a smooth inside track in MO.
Shorter Petey on Feb 3 results:
If Clymer and Geppy throw in with Kerry, he could really swamp the field. If not, Edwards has an outside shot at putting his finger in the dike. Dean doesn't have much of an opening.
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Taking an even longer view:
Dean is clearly the undead at this point. I expect him to survive until Mar 2, and expect him to get his god given share of NY and CA delegates, which is about 25% in a 3 candidate field, or 37% of a 2 candidate field. But he's going to have trouble winning more than a state or two beyond Vermont.
Edwards is still alive, but just barely. Unless he can quickly demonstrate that NH happened because it's in Kerry's backyard, he will join Dean in being undead.
If Edwards doesn't reverse the tide this week, we're looking at a very simiilar replay of '88 with Kerry as Dukakis, Edwards as Gore, and Dean as Jackson.