Well, in the spirit of my bulging IEM account, here's a cattle call based on percentages. First, here's what the IEM is saying as I write:
Kerry .36
Edwards .24
Dean .21
Clark .15
Here what I think the percentage chances for each guy to win the nomination, and briefly why:
Kerry .45
He's got pole position right now. Kerry has plenty of establishment support, the war story is playing right, and his Northeastern competitor is self-destructing. Few weaknesses other than region, and somewhat sluggish presence.
Edwards .35
Best campaigner in the field by far. Lots of questions, though. Can he overcome the gravitas and foreign policy thresholds? Is his senior staff ready for the prime-time glare?
Clark .15
I think the IEM has him fairly priced. It's a hell of a lot more likely than not that he's going to self-destruct this week. The only reason he's ranked this high is all the Clinton who've flocked to his campaign.
Dean .05
Sorry, you true believers, but I didn't think this guy was likely to get the nomination even if he'd won both IA and NH by 10 points. Now I can't even imagine a scenario where he's triumphant in Boston.