When Dr. Dean was praising Mr. Bush in 1998, he added that the Texas governor and others he did not name were successful because "they govern from the center, they are respectful of their opponents." Governing from the center was Dr. Dean's approach as well, and he often cited the Clinton model with approval.

Read the entire NY Times article

Kerry .52
Edwards .22
Dean .15
Clark .08

For the first time this season, the IEM is pricing the candidates pretty closely to where I think fair value is.

Here what I think the percentage chances are for each guy to win the nomination (with changes from my last prediction on Tuesday), and briefly why:

Clark's fallen off a cliff, and looks locked into 4th.

Dean bounced off of a bottom in the low teens, but I think he faces a ceiling in the low 20's.  He's in a race with Edwards for 2nd.

Edwards is surging, but it's coming too late to challenge Kerry.  He should easily beat Dean for 2nd unless Kerry gets significantly upwards of 40%.  

Dean's hardcore provides him a solid 20% of the vote.  If Kerry sucks up enough soft voters, there could so few of them that Edwards would be kept out of 2nd.  However, I don't see this as likely happening.  I think Edwards will comfortably get 2nd over Dean.

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And to reiterate from earlier posts, if Kerry wins NH really big, say 15 - 20 points, this entire nomination race is over.

I can hear the bells faintly in the distance.

I can definitely hear them getting louder!

Hare Krishna Hare Krishna

Kerry moving down.  Horrible day on Friday
Dean and Clark steady.  Both of their slides halted.
Edwards moving up
Lieberman has an amazing day on Friday.

The Dean refugees are still in play.

Iowa was easy to forecast.  This one is hard.

Dean can remain semi-alive with a second place finish, but I don't see how he does that.  The guy has a 35% favorable number in ARG.

Burlington is trying  to figure out if their money has any value if they finish below 2nd in NH.  (If they have any money left, of course.)

There is a strong the possiblility of the two guys without money coming in first and second, which might create a real money primary over the next week.

The Edwards surge is coming, and he's going to get at least second.  But first is still not out of reach.

Clark is a non-factor, unless Chris Lehane decides to unload even harder on Edwards than he already is.

If Kerry doesn't sew this up in NH, Michigan is going to be huge.

But it's always struck as a particularly tone-deaf metaphor to use.

If I was attacking a candidate who'd fought in Vietnam with bravery, while my own candidate had received a medical exemption from the draft for a bad spine, I think that's the last metaphor in world I'd want to use.

Most Dean supporters are pretty reasonable people, but there are some real mouth-breathers out there.

He snipes a bit at the end, but it's most a pretty good piece outlining the reasons that brought me to Edwards in the first place.

Like Clinton, Edwards creates strong emotional connections with people, can win over undecides solely with a stump speech, and causes people to fall in love with him.  They're both from poor families.

I prefer candidates like Edwards and Clinton because they have the potential to win lots of converts over to the Democratic side.

Kerry 31%
Dean 21%
Clark 16%
Edwards 11%

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http://news.bostonherald.com/national/national.bg?articleid=596

Kerry .36
Edwards .24
Dean .21
Clark .15

Here what I think the percentage chances for each guy to win the nomination, and briefly why:

Kerry .45

He's got pole position right now.  Kerry has plenty of establishment support, the war story is playing right, and his Northeastern competitor is self-destructing.  Few weaknesses other than region, and somewhat sluggish presence.

Edwards .35

Best campaigner in the field by far.  Lots of questions, though.  Can he overcome the gravitas and foreign policy thresholds?  Is his senior staff ready for the prime-time glare?

Clark .15

I think the IEM has him fairly priced.  It's a hell of a lot more likely than not that he's going to self-destruct this week.  The only reason he's ranked this high is all the Clinton who've flocked to his campaign.

Dean .05

Sorry, you true believers, but I didn't think this guy was likely to get the nomination even if he'd won both IA and NH by 10 points.  Now I can't even imagine a scenario where he's triumphant in Boston.

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I know Dean can continue indefinely as a Jerry Brown / Jesse Jackson style candidate, but I'm talking about viable candidates for the nomination.

Both Dean and Kerry would be destroyed by not winning NH.

If the war resolution vote is your entire universe, then I understand you won't be able to get behind Johnny Sunshine.

But if you're looking for a candidate who will lead the party to victory, and run an administration we can be proud of as lefties, then I invite you to look more closely at John Edwards.

He organized the left throughout '03 brilliantly.

However, he's a lousy strategist, and always has been.

Do a little dance
Make a little love
Get down tonight!
Get down tonight!

John Edwards for President!